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Spend 5 days training with the former British National Champion on the same
roads he uses to prepare for his upcoming race season. These same roads and
routes have led him to great successes in previous seasons, now you can take
advantage of the phenomenal training grounds that South Texas has to offer.
Nelo’s Cycles will provide full mechanical and nutritional support for the entire
camp so all you have to worry about is building the base miles like the Pros do.
Every day of riding will be followed by a short clinics featuring industry experts as
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Coach and former professional racer.

ITINERARY
• Jan 18th – Introductions, 2hr morning
ride, 2hr afternoon ride, 1hr clinic on
fitting, training, season goals.
• Jan 19th – 6hr morning ride,
afternoon rest, evening clinic on off
and on the bike training.
• Jan 20th – 3hr morning ride, 2hr
afternoon TT ride, evening clinic
covering on and off the bike nutrition.
• Jan 21st – 6hr morning ride, afternoon
rest, evening Q&A with Kristian
House.
• Jan 22nd – 6hr morning ride
Five day fully supported camp $350
One day pass available for $80

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For additional information or questions
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Mid Season CX Musings... but coming a little late.

As the cross (CX) season begins its final push towards Nationals and Master's Worlds, some random thoughts come to mind.

CX is as much a learning process as it is an endurance sport:

Source Endurance has done a couple CX clinics this fall with the goal of providing the basic skills from which a solid CX season could be built on.  What we didn't have time to explain or show was that the skills are one third of the process. Fitness is also a big part. Experience sums up the final component to CX success.

There is no such thing as a perfect CX race.  Everyone will make mistakes and the key is to minimize the effect those mistakes have on your race.  Mistakes can be anything from not getting clipped in to sliding down a muddy hill on your stomach.  Next, how does each rider react to the mistakes?

At some point there is a limit to how many mistakes you can make before it affects your ability to ride unhindered through all the obstacles of a CX course.  This can influenced by number and severity of the crash/ bobble but also by how much you lose in each instance strategically.

General CX Strategy: Keep in mind that this is very dynamic and that the time frame for the 3 stages are dynamic.

Beginning: All out, fast, establish your field position.  Take some risks but the general understanding is that you can't win the race in the first couple of laps but you can lose it.  Stay upright.  Remember that you have to be in a position to win before you can make that happen.  Many riders will fail here because of a bad warm up or creative excuse making.
 
Middle:  Once the field position is established, the shift should be towards the tactical race.  Remember, you are racing other riders on the course for places. Many inexperienced riders race the course with other riders on it.  The goal here is to race to gain advantages that you can exploit over your opponents.  Some risks should be taken here and perhaps bigger risks depending on the reward.  Often times, you'll see small groups form and break up as the attacks happen.  Once you gain an advantage, it's off to the races!  But if you are put at a disadvantage, you'll be chasing hard.

Finale: By now, fatigue has started to wear on everyone and depending on how the race has gone thus far, you are either reacting to your opponents punches or they are reacting to yours.  However, risk/ reward is now more important as it is dramatically influenced by the tactical situation on the course.  The tables can be turned here quickly and the rider with the advantage can quickly become the rider who is stuck in checkmate.  The general rule: If you have an advantage, take it to the finish line.

2012 CX National Championships- Men Elite Prediction

Tim Johnson.  That's my prediction and barring injury or illness at this point of the season, and I'm sticking to it.  I told a few friends back in September that the one who will win CX Nationals will only begin to see championship form around Thanksgiving.  And I'll followup the statement with this, "the guys who are winning consistently in the early and middle season will struggle with the races as nationals approaches." Here is my reasoning:

Course Conditions: 

Guaranteed to be icy with snow. With a January average max temperature of 28F,  Madison has had at least 3" of snow on the ground in January every year since 1992 except for 2001.  Also, anytime your host city has ice skating, snowshoeing and ice fishing on the city calendar, all within 6 days of the Elite races, ice will be a guaranteed feature of the course.  This means all the pre-riding, early races, and fall recon of the course is worthless.  Ice offers virtually no traction and very few riders, even at the professional level have the necessary combination of mental toughness, horsepower, throttle feathering ability and handling skills to negotiate it at the national championship level.

Tim, however, does have that combination and he has proven it.  Looking back the recent national championships and cross referencing them with memory and news, we can review Tim's results:
2000 Overland Park, KS.  Ice, snow. 1st.
2005 Providence, RI. Ice, mud. I couldn't seem to find his result from the Dec. 9 event.  Any help?
2007 Kansas City, KS. Ice, mud, more ice. 1st.

and...

,

ZEROtraction Cross Film Trailer from Gizmo Pictures on Vimeo.

2009 Bend, OR. Ice, mud. 1st.



The only time that it appears that Tim lost an icy national championship was when Todd Wells won in 2005.  However, Todd will not be in Madison in order to make a run at the coming Olympic games.

Advantage, Tim.

Fitness and Form: 
Equally, if not more important, is Tim's preparation for the event.  It was well publicized that Tim was taking the 2012 CX Champs with a much different approach than year's past.  His build up was going to be longer, more gradual and it was not going to include a full road schedule.

There are probably multiple reasons for this but I'll only cover the big ones.

Improvement in quality and depth of field:
Todd Wells said it and I've heard it repeated in many different interviews.  CX is bigger and moving away from the fringe.  As this shift occurs, more fast riders are concentrating on the CX season and expecting results.  Todd Wells said that he is having a more difficult time jumping from the mountain scene to the cross scene and winning as the sport continues to grow.  In all likelihood, the next few years could see the increased proliferation of CX specialists in the US.  That brings with it faster races, and makes it more difficult to win the races and the UCI points. Indeed, as soon as you have competition, then within a narrow range of individuals training will become a crucial determinant of who wins loses.

Age: 
Let's face it.  Everyone gets older.  While the newest research points that the effects of age can be thwarted, eventually, it does catch up to us all.  With aging, the first element that begins to fade is the explosiveness of athletes.  At 34 Tim may just now be feeling the effects of this.  Vo2 and Aerobic abilities usually are not effected significantly until probably after he retires.  However, in an event where only one place matters, one half of 1% can be the difference between a stars and bars jersey and finishing in any other position. 

The buildup, both physical and mental:
It was very well publicized that Tim's build started slow.  He said it himself in an interview, "I'm going to suck at the beginning." On the other hand, while I've only spoken with Tim briefly a couple of times and never this season, his interviews are very candid and he understand his limits as well his own mortality.  I think Tim knows that it will be a tall order to ask someone to go fast from September to January on the CX bike.  However, I do disagree with one aspect and that is this reference to the middle of the CX season being a "lull."

The "lull," downtime, mid season break, or whatever you want to call it is entirely over-hyped and under executed.  Taking the long hours of training, traveling and racing and replacing them with even more training does not constitute a rest.  Also, for proof that a true break does work, join me as we take a trip down recent memory lane and remember that in 2009 Tim suffered a separated shoulder which sidelined him the first part of the CX season.  That only led to the most successful season of Tim's career.  In 2010, Todd Wells crashed in Fort Collins, putting him on the injured reserve roster for a couple of weeks.



Over the next few weeks, we saw Todd get better and better until he finally won his first CX race of the 2010 season, the National Championship. Also, if you take a gander at the Rapha Focus schedule to see Jeremy Powers' schedule, it appears that he's racing every week.  That's alot of travel and a LOT of travel related stress for an athlete who is the fastest CX racer in the US right now.  It should be interesting to see how the stress accumulates with each top contender.  Take home message here is that in order to race at a national championship level, there needs to be a true rest, constructed or forced, on the calendar.

Also, as we take a quick peek back at some results sheets, you can see Tim inching closer and closer, by time to the front of the race.  This points to a couple of things worth note. Tim is getting (relatively) faster while his top competitors' form has stagnated or is starting to slip. Note: this is all very relative and remember a "slow" Jeremy Powers or Ryan Trebon are still capable of riding very fast indeed.

Emotional/ Psychological: 
As a Coach, it's always interesting to me to see how elite athletes handle being anything less than a super-rockstar.  I could argue that until Tim completely flops, he will remain that. Yet, he only recently, experienced the success that a 3 time national champion is accustomed to. 

Sept 14, 2011: I've already placed this link once, but here it is again.  Tim claims that he's going to have a slow start to the CX season and appears okay with it.

Nov 6, 2011: In this interview, Tim talks about how he's getting closer to racing with the best, and winning.  His patience and confidence were definitely tested the previous 6 weeks but his resolve and trust in his program held fast.  He is starting to see the form coming and it appears to be feeding his confidence.

Nov. 28, 2011: Finally, that first win of the season and Tim appears both relieved but also excited for what the remainder of the season holds now that he is riding "fast" again.

Nov 29, 2011: Tim discusses exactly how tough the first part of the season was. Again, you can feel his releif in the interview.

Dec 3, 2011: Tim wins again, confirming his buildup is working.

It takes a tremendous amount of trust in himself, his support personnel, and his program make this leap.  Also, it takes an athlete who is comfortable with success and is willing to risk some early hype to make a bigger push towards the finale.  For all the above reasons, I peg Tim Johnson as the next US CX National Champion.

The Off Season: It Will Make or Break the Coming Season

By: John Hobbs, Senior Consultant

The passing of the Road World Championships tells the time of the year.  CX-ers are gritting their teeth during eye-popping efforts, winter athletes are preparing for the transition to snow, and roadies have rounded out their season and wrapping up their time off.  That time off is just where the rub can occur.   It is easy to put your feet up and not think about training, diet, or even unpacking the last few items in your race bag that haven’t seen day-light in four months.   However, the off-season to any athlete is an important time in their build for the coming season.  Proper mental and physical work during this period can go a long way in setting you up for your goals in the coming training blocks.

Rounding out the season, many athletes are fried whether they realize it or not.  Motivation for next spring’s races can carry some straight through the fatigue that comes after a peak.  However, most are looking to rest and regroup.  And that is the first part of preparing for next season—doing hardly anything.  This level of “hardly anything” varies from athlete to athlete, but involves a rest period.  Old or new injuries should be addressed as well has just taking a bit of time to fully recover.  A classic strategy is to take two weeks to a month completely off.  But, this level of recovery is not usually required and will cause some to go stir-crazy.  If you’re facing over-training syndrome or life has accumulated (remember, this is a hobby to most of us no matter how much we pretend), then a long duration of inactivity may actually be what is in order.  While from a training standpoint, this may not be ideal, the losses are minimal when compared to the potential repercussions of pushing on.   For many, however, a solid block of recovery with some activity is just what is needed.  A couple of easy recovery rides and some fun time without structure is what’s in order.  The idea is not to minimize detraining and stepping too far back.  But, again, this is a complex picture with more than just miles ridden to be considered.  One way to limit detraining is to avoid excessive time off.  Various adaptations occur fairly rapidly ranging from decreased levels of plasma in the blood to loss of mitochondria in the muscle.  Luckily, many of the physiological attributes that are quickly lost are able to be regained relatively quickly if detraining doesn’t progress too far.  These also respond to a level of “maintenance” training to avoid slipping too far down the slope.

Perhaps a Nutrition Consult is in order?

Assuming a solid recovery takes place, now it’s time to check out that smorgasbord of holiday food and drinks… and then back away.  The off-season and early part of training are the times to lose weight.  Anecdotally, this is one avenue where racers can have a major impact on the upcoming season.  The topic of weight loss and body composition goes beyond simply riding more and eating less.  Implementing strategies to achieve your weight loss goals and allow proper recovery are essential.  Some view the winter months as a break from strict dieting and plan on losing the weight when the temperatures creep upward.  The flaw with this is the effect diet has on your training.  As the intensity of training creeps, up so does the need to meet the energy output as well as substrate source with input.  This need is what can send your fitness down the tube if weight loss is attempted later in the race calendar.  In the end, having a caloric or nutrient deficit does not allow recovery from intense training.  The ramifications are two-fold.  First, without recovery, athletes face an increased risk of over-training.  Increased risk of illness and injury along with power-outputs of a kitten take long periods of rest to bounce back from.  Additionally, without adequate recovery, the workouts become ineffective.  Fatigue sets in before the goal work rate can be sustained for the prescribed duration.  This limits the gains that can be made each training session, and in extreme cases, may not provide sufficient stimulus to provide a training benefit.  This draw-back is more difficult to notice as, subjectively, an athlete may not feel too tired or sense that they have only a little twinge of fatigue.   In the end, however, they are not able to completely finish a workout, or barely finish the five efforts of the day when they should be doing six.  The off and early seasons, when the emphasis is not completely fatiguing efforts but rather relatively low intensities, are the periods to allow for a caloric deficit in order to get closer to the goal weight.  A major component of this is the substrates used for energy at the varying intensities—fat (a very abundant energy dense source) versus carbohydrate (a  limited source that takes longer to replenish). Even more importantly, this is the period to decrease weight gains.  If an athlete can limit themselves to a pound or two of excess, training and weight goals are significantly easier to achieve.

Early off-season is also the time to reflect and plan.  Athletes are encouraged to go back and look at the goals that were made for the season and see what contributed to meeting or not meeting them.  From there, decide what the next season holds.  During this period, athletes still have perspective on the previous year.  Later in the off-season when motivation increases, events from the previous season may be forgotten and lead to unrealistic goals or an athlete over-extending themselves not recalling the effects of travel, training, and racing on various parts of life and training itself.

Additionally, early planning allows for a more effective build.  While twelve weeks can allow for an athlete to come in to serious form, especially with prior training, additional time enables more freedom to progress at a slower rate.  A more gradual build not only aids in preventing injury and over-training by ensuring adequate adaptations, it permits athletes to reach the higher intensity portions of training with greater fitness, allowing for higher work rates and further adaptations.  Additionally, it establishes workouts for an athlete’s goals, rather than everybody else’s goals.  In the Texas area, early March provides a solid block racing, when up north, one hopes for rides without the threat of black-ice.  By having goals established early, proper implementation of intensity duration of workouts can occur.   And if goals and the racing calendar are conducive to it, an athlete can have two solid peaks in one season due to the work put in earlier in the year. While it may lead to comments like “dude, it’s the off season, you don’t need to go that hard” from training partners, long term planning allows for the most effective use of training in the off season.

The off-season is typically used to work on an athlete’s “base.”  This term, however, has been misused in the past leading to ineffective training.  Two major components of a workout are duration and intensity and the respective adaptations each brought.  The old school of thought still held by many proposes easy rides of long duration.  Adaptations do take place during this type of training and shouldn’t be denied.  However, the practicality and effectiveness of these workouts should be called in to question.  First, most recreational athletes do not have the luxury of a time commit allowing for 3 plus hours on the bike multiple days a week.  This is even more so in the winter months when weather and lack of daylight limit training times.  Secondly, research has shown that many of the adaptations that take place at lower intensities also take place at relatively higher intensities with a decreased duration.    In the end, athletes can begin to make fitness gains in 45 to 90 minute training session either outdoor or indoors.   It has to be remembered that that the body works on a stimulus-response system.  While workouts may or not include maximal efforts depending on the training developed between the coach and athlete, various fitness gains can be made.  And above all else, loses can be minimized with proper implementation of intensity.

The primary goals of an effective off-season are recovery and preparation.  Recovery from injuries as well as prevention can take place with little detriment to the upcoming race season.  By becoming organized and establishing realistic goals for the darker colder months, athletes can emerge at a higher fitness level and can succeed in achieving an ambitious peak.

Cyclocross Course Design, Technical skills, Fitness

Groups of riders usually signal un-technical riding.
Photo Credit: Lyne Lamoureux

Following some recent races both at the national and local level, some have been asking, commenting, and wondering how Cyclocross (CX) course design plays into the outcome of the race.  This proves a very interesting topic and something that could be debated indefinitely.  But first let's talk about some things we do know regarding CX course design and conditions.

First, we know that there are virtually no statistics kept in cycling.  At least not nearly detailed, or accurate enough to warrant a color man in the commentary booth.  The next time you watch a major sport on TV, note how many statistics you are bombarded with, "this team is 3 of 8 on 3rd and long today."  Or, more vague, "this quarterback has a tendency to look to the left first, then throw right in the red zone."  Even, "this team is 19-1 when leading in the 4th quarter."  Cycling simply does not have those type of statistics available.  Instead they rely on commentators entertaining the spectators with stories or anecdotal evidence.  No one really knows what Sven Nys' win ratio is in mud, when he leads by 3sec with 1 lap to go. Expect to see more on this in later posts.


Besides the ambiance, the most notable difference between UCI CX courses and the local events most racers attend is course design.  As a whole, UCI courses tend to flow better, are faster and are much more technical at speed while local events tend to be much more compressed and constricted, slowing average speed in the belief that tight courses favor the less fit rider who can handle a bike better.  (Obviously there are reasons for the difference such as constrictions for venue selection between UCI and local events, but that's beyond the realm of this discussion.)  However, lap times for CX races tend to run 7-8 minutes each at the elite level and around 9-10 minutes for the non-elite categories.  This is important because it sets the stage for the conjecture: Tight, overly technical and ultimately slow speed course design, while meant to favor the more technically skilled rider, favors the racers who are more fit.

The theory with the course design is to mitigate the fitness component of race in favor of the technical skills.  The premise of the theory is that because some have better bike handling skills, but not as much fitness, the more turns the better.  And the tighter the turns, the better.  This allows the handlers to show off their skills and gain ground on the more fit, yet less proficient bike drivers. Unfortunately, a different result usually ensues.

Often times, a course designed as stated above will contain many tight turns that force speeds to drop dramatically and often during each lap.  Hairpin 180 degree turns are the best example. Is this technical? Absolutely, but not technical enough to put the favor in the hands of the superb bike handlers.  This is because once a rider has the fitness to reach the terminal velocity of the corner (speed at which physics limits absolute traction and speed of the corner) then the advantage dealt to the bike handlers is eliminated and is shifted back to the more fit, less technical rider.  Why?

Confusing, ain't it?

Because once that velocity is reached and the brakes are applied, everyone is RESTING! If each hairpin 180 takes 7 seconds to negotiate, then that's 7 seconds of total rest, which can seem like an amazing eternity to anyone who has done micro intervals or anaerobic capacity work (imagine getting 7 extra seconds to rest). The net effect is that the fit rider is more fresh, relatively speaking.  The more fresh rider is able to hit the gas, HARD out of every turn for the entire race if they are rested enough, relatively. The repeated, near maximal efforts will always wear more on the less fit riders and result in them eventually being dropped.

So how is the technical rider able to compete?


In order make a CX course that benefits technical ability, course must be set up in a way that allows those who have fantastic handling skills can stay at speed, while those without the skills, must pull the brakes.  But the terminal velocity of the turns must be high enough while the speed is allowed to stay high enough without expending energy while riding a particular section.  (The videos below are a great example of needing more skills to go faster, regardless of fitness)


However, there is one caveat to all this talk about bike handling... cyclo-cross will always be an endurance based sport.  This means that while fitness alone may not be a sufficient quality to succeed in CX, it will always be necessary.  Often times, superb bike handling only accounts for a handful of seconds per 7-8 minute lap and while they can make a difference they should be put in perspective.  An 8 minute lap is 480 seconds.  So, if superb handling allows up to 12 seconds per lap over another rider the net result is a ~2.5% gain which if applied to a 60 minute elite race is just under 90 seconds.  Not much.  You can practice technique for races, but you can not fake fitness.







Time indices 0:55-2:37 and 4:43-5:38, but it's a good video of Jingle CX in Iowa City, IA.

The problem with applying science to training.

John Hobbs, MEd

Senior Consultant

Many of our athletes have a history of marginally following haphazard training plans or blindly trusting current and old training fads, which had effectively prevented them from realizing most of their athletic potential.  As we have learned from our clients, equally detrimental is the blanket application of scientific literature to training.  Studies are frequently referenced in on-line articles, chat rooms, and sometimes discussed to some extent in group workouts. Discussion does empower the athlete that is more knowledgeable and allows them to effectively debunk obsolete methods and “back in my day” training regimens.  However, often missed are the intricacies of research that lead to inappropriate application of study findings.

In reality, scientific literature can be about as dry as warning labels that come pasted to equipment.  Most people don’t have the desire to stay current on the literature and really have no need to—that’s what the consultant is for.  But in the event that somebody has a topic of interest or sees a reference to a journal article, it is important to be able to have a correct interpretation of what is presented and understand the limits.  Below are just a few of the common caveats of studies that require attention before training methods are implemented or removed.

Population

With the nature of exercise physiology, a plethora of research designs exist.  They range from molecular level comparisons of rat muscles to kangaroos on treadmills to average speed during a time trial.  The articles that most people will never see involve direct measures of performance in the given sport.  When looking at applying the information and questioning its relevance to your training, several issues should be addressed.

First, who are the researchers using as their guinea pigs?  Often, untrained individuals are used due to their availability.  Most athletes don’t want to risk their training to become part of a study that may be detrimental or use a placebo.  This may or may not have an effect on the data, depending on what is being analyzed.  In many cases, however, a stronger argument relating to performance can be made if trained individuals are used.  This is due to the fact that untrained individuals will usually show an improvement just by the nature of becoming trained.   On the flip side, if an intervention can’t produce an improvement in untrained individuals, it’s safe to question its efficacy in trained athletes until proven otherwise.

Timing

A library of literature exists showing “interval x,” “routine y” and “exercise z” showed improvements in performance.  But the context of the studies has to be questioned.  As already noted, getting competitive athletes to become part of a training study is difficult at best, let alone during the race season after many hours dedicated to intensity.  So a great time to herd up some road cyclists in to a lab is in the late fall or winter.  However, athletes have usually detrained a bit and the typical duration of a study is usually relatively short can skew data.  As a result, the training improvements may be magnified or just due to the fact that Joe Racer is doing hard intervals.  

With the periodization model currently accepted as the most effective training design, the implementation of a change in training based on literature can be difficult to place.  Will the athlete get the most benefit with early season work?  Would it be more productive when they are stronger later in the season?  Or, will it even be effective once intense structured training begins?

 

Study Design

With a limited number of trained volunteers and a short period to follow them, how do researchers design a study to ensure that interval x will make you faster?  The honest answer is that they don’t.  Numerous comparisons can be completed with just one intervention.  In studies looking at diet, questions arise regarding a placebo group, the amount of benefit from the change, if the subjects are just eating more, if the percent change in another part of the diet affects the results, changes in calories burned versus calories consumed and so on.  With limited resources, different studies have to be done to chip away at the different possibilities.  This is one reason why it seems that some research seems redundant—it’s analyzing a different aspect.  So when an improvement is shown to occur, it is important to look at the comparisons being made.

So, to illustrate the points, lets say we’re looking at body weight squats and a study that showed they increase time trial performance.  We’ll say two groups of cyclist are used with one group completing their normal training and another group does an additional set of squats twice a week for two months.  It’s hard to differentiate if the gains are due to the use of squats specifically or the fact that Joe Racer is training more and has periods of higher intensity.  Plus, with the study done in the off season, it can’t be determined if the benefits will be seen in six months at the peak event.  To further the problem, will the squats provide a benefit when replacing or supplementing high intensity training in a trained athlete during the meat of the training program?

One role of exercise physiology is to connect application in the real world to data in the lab.  The catch statement of “well, that works in the lab, but not the real world” is a cop out to not delve deeper in to how something may or may not affect athletes. The role of science in providing sound training strategies is invaluable.  It keeps us from adhering to silly things, such as using cigarettes to clear our lungs before each workout.  And while an article may seem to provide an avenue to revolutionize the way we see training and performance, the fact is that these discoveries are far and few; rather, each one is a piece of a larger project giving us direction.  

Asking about various training ideas is vital.  It keeps us on our toes and gives us new ideas.  And when an athlete brings ideas to us, especially backed up by a reliable literature source, it’s important that they understand why we may be apprehensive in immediately implementing them and why we could say “I don’t see the harm, why don’t we give it a shot?”

Nature Valley Grand Prix St. Paul Criterium, When Numbers Alone Can Lead You Astray

Sometimes, looking at numbers can give you a realistic idea of how hard an event is.  Using Intensity Factor number from Training Peaks helps us to understand and quantify the difficulty of the event.  Coupled with the Training Stress Score, and normalized power an experienced exercise physiologist and coach can realistically estimate how tough any particular ride or race was.

But what happens when the numbers just don't add up?  For each event, Source Endurance consultants make it a point to engage every athlete in some way to get a report/ debriefing of how it all went down.  This usually occurs during the scheduled consult.

A few weeks ago Shadd Smith competed in the Nature Valley Grand Prix (NVGP) Stage Race.  Following each stage Shadd would upload his data where it would be examined and scrutinized.  The numbers tell one story.  However, when coupled with the daily race summaries provided by Shadd, an entirely new layer of data comes to light along with some new realizations of the limits of human physiology.

In the picture below, you can see the non-smoothed race in its entirety.  The first thing that comes to mind is that it looks almost like there are attacks the entire race.  But wait, is that true? I've drawn two lines; one at Shadd's threshold and the other is at 600W.  This wattage seems to be a good measure of how many top-end efforts an elite athlete makes.  To put it in perspective, an amateur race with nine +600W efforts in 5 minutes can cause a irreversible split in the field. 

At the NVGP, Shadd produced around 15 of these efforts per every five minutes for over an hour.  All while the United Health Care Team (UHC) rode "tempo" on the front, meaning that not only was the field not splitting, Shadd was actually just sitting in the wheels, a testament to the difference between amateur and professional racing.

Towards the end of the file, you'll see where Shadd was finally unhitched, along with nearly every other rider in the field as UHC began the lead out.  This led him to ask the question, "if the normalized power from the race was significantly less than my threshold power, why did myself and so many guys get dropped?"  Indeed, even with those high power spikes, the normalized power was only 299W for the entire race.  Let's investigate..... 

Below you see a smoothed version of the same race.  Notice how the speed and power are very cyclical, indicative that not a lot of attacking is going on.  Rather, because of the UHC escort, the race was just fast, all the surges were mostly likely accelerations coming out of corners as well as the energy required to improve position.  You can see that toward the end of the race, the pace begins to edge upward.  With the accumulated fatigue from the day's efforts, this proved too much for many riders, amateur and professional.

But....

His output numbers for the event are well within his ability level, by the numbers.  How would it be possible to gap off that many excellent riders?  To get a better view, we'll examine the non-smoothed, zoomed in view of a ~5min block of the stage.

Confirming the previous conjecture, it does appear that cyclical peaks and valleys are a product of the race course which required slowing for turns, then accelerating back to speed.  However, you'll notice the large bit of time where the is no power production, or very little. That little bit of rest, that coasting is a godsend in the short term.  The opportunity to recover just a bit makes the prospect of what is to come just a bit more bearable.

However, the coasting is also the root cause of why so many PRO and elite riders were sent home that evening with a time loss.  In order to coast for ~38% of the race and maintain a normalized power of 299W, there must be some hard efforts, and many of them as you'll note from the amount of time spent over 600W.

This brings me to the issue of recovery.  For every effort, there is a required recovery period.  As the intensity rises, recovery time increases.  However, at some point, or perhaps always, this recovery time appears to increase exponentially or at least in a non-linear fashion.
For example say at an intensity of 200W the recovery time is at a 1:1 ratio. 
300W, 1:1.5
325W, 1:2
350W, 1:4
375W, 1: 8 and so on....

This could explain how a race that appears very benign "by the numbers" was in fact one of the hardest races Shadd has ever completed.  However, without the race summary from him and the post race consult, any coach and many exercise physiologists would have a difficult time understanding this race and why the athlete, Shadd would find such a race so hard.